Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Clouds Make Nerds Look Good

Clouds Make Nerds Look Good: 
Field Evidence of the Impact of Incidental Factors on Decision Making. 2007

...Analyzing 682 actual university admission decisions. As predicted, applicants' academic attributes are weighted more heavily on cloudier days and non‐academic attributes on sunnier days. ...changes in cloud cover can increase a candidate's predicted probability of admission by an average of up to 11.9%. These results also shed light on the causes behind the long-demonstrated unreliability of experts making repeated judgments from the same data.


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