Tuesday, June 30, 2020

The fallacy of checking symptoms and temperature to prevent spread of COVID.

Although everyone is checking symptoms and temperature before granting entry these days, that may be tilting at windmills.*  The virus is mostly spread before symptoms begin, which is the insidious, menacing truth that makes this so much worse than regular flu. 

Quantitative COVID-19 infectiousness estimate correlating with viral shedding and culturability suggests 68% pre-symptomatic transmissions.

"The profile suggests that a 68.4% (95% CI: 67.0-69.7%) of the infections are caused by infections before the symptoms appear..."



Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19

"We estimated that 44%(95% confidence interval, 25–69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases' presymptomatic stage..."


Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19
"We estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 25–69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases' presymptomatic stage"

And a substantial proportion of people have a puzzling absence of symptoms throughout their infection. (The Diamond Princess was a perfect  crucible in which to study virus transmission in detail in an isolated population.)

Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020

"The estimated asymptomatic proportion was 17.9% (95% credible interval (CrI): 15.5–20.2%). Most infections occurred before the quarantine start."

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