Saturday, October 17, 2026

Weather forecasting keeps getting better


Overall, weather predictions have come a long way in recent decades. 

Forecasting skill increases by roughly one extra day of accuracy per decade. 

A 5-day forecast today is roughly as accurate as a 1-day forecast was in the early 1980s, and a 3-day prediction of a tropical storm or hurricane track today is more precise than a 24-hour forecast was 40 years ago.

I've often wondered how much forecasting has improved. This video emphasizes how granular or hyper-regional current predictions are getting using AI and massive amounts of data. 

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