analyzed over 20 years' worth of climate model forecasts of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)
and found some interesting results... The purest test for models is how well they do in the future, on data that the model has never ever seen. This type of evaluation on "real-time forecasts" is much rarer, and is exactly what Azhar and his co-authors did...The model forecasts can be split into two types, dynamical and statistical. Dynamical models refer to models which take observational data to simulate earth's future climate by using equations that represent our best understanding of the laws of physics...Statistical models, on the other hand, use the historical relationships...and...observational record[s] and then use these relationships to make predictions for the current situation.
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