Monday, March 2, 2020

Just how contagious is COVID-19? | Popular Science

If R0 is less than 1, the disease will typically die out...An R0 larger than 1 means each sick person infects at least one other person on average, who then could infect others, until the disease spreads through the population. For instance, a typical seasonal flu strain has an R0 of around 1.2...[In the case of] COVID-19: Because the disease is fairly new to medicine, researchers are still tabulating the data required to calculate R0 more or less in real time. As of February 19, 2020, estimates placed R0 above 1.4 but below 4, well within the range for other coronaviruses like SARS. ...Another important number for understanding diseases is the "case fatality rate" or CFR: What percentage of people who have a disease die from it?...The CFR for an emerging disease like COVID-19 is remarkably hard to estimate accurately, simply because all the numbers involved are relatively small...A preliminary calculation from February 8, 2020 estimates CFR of about 1.4 percent—meaning out of 1,000 infected people, around 14 will die...

https://www.popsci.com/story/health/how-diseases-spread/



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