https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8587(20)30268-0/fulltext
There is a correlation between vitamin D deficiency and severity of COVID infection, and although there is mechanistic reasoning for a beneficial effect through immune modulation and regulation of renin-angiotensin pathway, they acknowledge this could be a spurious association.
They assert that it would take a huge population-based study to show benefit of prophylaxis, and that administration of vitamin D as treatment after infection is confounded by the co-administration of dexamethasone.
They conclude by saying that it's probably worth taking vitamin D at least for its bone and muscle effects, even if this association with reduced COVID severity proves to be spurious.
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